Friday, March 06, 2009

Playing Against Weak Opposition

Often, you’ll hear players complain about the level of the competition they have to go up against at the online tables. These people are usually not complaining about how good and difficult to beat their opponents are, of all things they’re discontent with the fact that the opposition they’re facing makes bad calls pretty much all the time and yet manages to keep them frustrated.
Never complain about how badly your opponents play. In poker, you’re supposed to make your money off your opponent’s mistakes, and in the long-run, the more mistakes they make, the more you’ll walk away with, regardless of the short-term streaks and bad beats.

You need to understand that Texas Hold'em is a game of high short term variance. The luck factor will throw wild swings at you pretty much all the time, making it appear that weak calls and bad players are getting the better of you. In the long-run however, playing against such bad calls is exactly what you should be looking for. It is statistically proven that – provided you come into the game on a hefty enough bankroll – you will beat the short term variance if you stick to EV+ and remain disciplined.

Here’s a small example: you pick up an A,A and some player calls you down with 7,8o to hit a straight on the river. Does this mean you’ve made a bad call? Not by a longshot. As a matter of fact you should be looking to make such calls as often as possible and let your pocket rockets tackle those 7,8,os as often as possible. There’s no starting hand in poker which can guarantee you a 100% win-rate, but if you get over 50% on your hand, you’re already in the EV+ zone. In the long-run, you will make a profit on such calls.

If you play against skilled opponents, who will fold their 8,7o when faced with your K,K every time, and call you only when they have A,A, you will take down a few small pots and give up several huge ones. That is absolutely not the way to go about making money at the poker table.
If you sense you’re unable to handle the short term variance of Texas Holdem without going on a tilt and wasting all your money, maybe you should think about taking up Omaha or Stud instead. The short term variance and the luck factor are much smaller issues there, while schooling (several bad calls ganging up on your good hand to cut down your odds) won’t happen at all.

Here are some of the mistakes bad players usually make and you should be looking to exploit:
They misread the board sometimes. OK, that’s not something you can consistently capitalize on, but there are plenty of other opportunities.

Weak players and beginners often bluff senselessly. They just fire out a bluff because they know the game of poker is supposed to feature bluffs too. They have no idea of the intricacies behind properly setting up a bluff.

These bluffs are called donk bluffs or dark tunnel bluffs and they represent one of the best sources of revenue for experienced players.

Beginners will often play well above their skill level. Since poker is a lot like driving – everybody thinks they’re better than average – beginners will often outplay themselves. It is all too easy for a beginner to fall into this trap, because without understanding the majority of strategic subtleties they will more often than not spring the trap for themselves through fancy play.
Getting married to their hands or taking losing hands way too far are also typical beginner mistakes which are highly exploitable.

If you find a weak table with players calling your set all-in with straight and flush draws time and time again you know you’ve struck a gold-mine. To avoid being frustrated by lucky draws, focus on your Sklansky dollars instead of the real money and don’t forget to sign up for rakeback. Most poker rooms give you 30% of your rake back, but some rakeback deals, like the PowerPoker rakeback are more generous.

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