Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Nice hand. Well played sir.....
Last week was another brutal week of getting caught on the losing end of a well played hand. What's new!? I'm sitting in the cut off when the pot limps over to me so I bump it up just a little to thin out some of the crowed with 33. Most call until Miller reraises for $30. He was in pretty early position so this is his classic reraise with Qs or better including AK. I call since i have position on him and H calls because he has chips. Flop comes pretty harmless 9d7d2c. H checks, Miller does a continuation bet which tipped his hand there so I call and H calls...just because he has chips. At this point I have no idea what H has which could be any hand from a set of deuces, to AA or maybe even JT chasing a straight. The good part for me was that I really figured Miller for AK in that spot since he knows that 99% of the time I'm firing at that pot to steal it and if he had As or Ks he would check raise all in like he normally does. The question comes into play what suite. AK diamonds...maybe but % of that being the case is really low so its an easy call there. I gave thought to reraising all in here but he's pretty much pot committed himself to the hand and has me covered and will fire a bluff on the river regardless so why push only to have a bad card come off on the turn that I could easily get away from? Turn comes my money card, 3c. Ship It!! H checks Miller fires out with $100 and I just shove all in since I only have $52 on top. H folds and Miller calls obv. As always, a club comes on the river to give him runner runner flush and he luckboxes out a win. Nothing I could do but tap the table, say "Nice hand. Well played sir." and walk downstairs. Such a rush of emotions there. The excitement of knowing that you have someone crushed drawing thin to only a few outs and then the inevitable spiral of emotions to that emptiness when a miracle comes and you can't believe your eyes!! (teddy kgb reference there boys!) There's nothing you can do except either rebuy or say good night. I chose the latter since I would have gone on tilt then and called it an early evening. All I want is for a good hand to hold up every now and then. Either that or let me start sucking out on everyone else!!
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7 comments:
Sorry but you stacked yourself there. Easy fold on the flop. Why call a continuation bet there even if you put him on A high especially when you aren't even completing the action? Preflop play was fine if the stacks were deep enough to give you the implied odds to hit yor set and your turn play was obviously correct. You leave out some relevant info like the stack sizes and the size of the continuation bet but regardless your flop play was borderline horrible. You could make that play profitably on occasion when heads up but with a player left to act behind you who could have checkraised you off your weak hand this is a negative expectaion play.
game 1/2 NL
stacks H$500+,M$250,Me$230
preflop: $100 in pot
flop: M bet $40, total pot $220, (H never ever check raises... and if he does...easy fold obv) leaving stacks at H$500+, M$175, me $152
give or take a few $ here and there, but i think this was about it.
having H in the hand adds dead money in the pot, typical feeler bet by Miller. easy call preflop, 4:1 on money w/ flop call. any none diamond and no AKQ on turn and i shove to take down pot then and there.
table image: I'm playing TAG and only showed down big hands, Miller is playing LAG firing bullets on every short handed pot he's in.
The correct play would be to fold or raise on the flop
I have to agree with anonymous, unfortunately, I believe that the best line is fold or raise the flop. Calling isn't a great proposition here, because of the position it puts you in on the turn. You're fairly confident that he's on AK (at a minimum), which puts you at roughly 39/45 (~86%) to stay ahead on the turn (also assuming that he is not on a flush draw, in which case you drop sharply to 66% to stay ahead). Now, this play could be profitable if you were both deep enough that a reraise/push on the turn would be enough to get him to fold, but assuming that he is betting in the $80-100 range (about 1/3 to 1/2 of the pot) means that your push-allin will give him $52 to call into 470+, and with at least nine legitimate outs (in this case, as it turns out, he probably thought he had 15) he absolutely has to call there. The only way that the flop play is really the best is that you've decided that you are pushing any card lower than, say, a J, and willing to accept the fact that you are probably giving him such good odds that he would have to call w/ AK-high no flush draw. Coldcalling the flop is definitely a gambling play, as you are not only allowing Miller a free draw at the turn when you are very confident that you are ahead, but also allowing H a free draw, who you have already said "could be any hand from a set of deuces, to AA or maybe even JT chasing a straight." So considering your reads on the table, you have exactly 2 safe cards to play the turn given your stack: your two set cards, and there is no justification for calling off $40 into $220 to hit a 5% shot for the turn (since you have to assume that you will be almost all-in on the turn regardless of what hits). I personally like a reraise to $100-120 here, something significant enough to get H to fold J10 or over cards or even a weak pp that has you beat, and something to show Miller that if he calls here, he's definitely going to call your remaining 80 on the turn, something much more daunting than having to call $50 into 470 when you've only decided to show action when you had little money left. Overall, I can't say it's the worst play you could've done (you could've folded the turn, that would've been worse!), but I would strongly recommend planning your hands less around your action exclusively (the "I reraised and he called and hit a low-percentage draw" argument here rings slightly untrue considering how the money worked) and moreso around how your action will impact the rest of the table (i.e. when do you want someone to fold, what will they do when you reraise and depending on how much you reraise, etc.) One final note: I commend you for getting up and walking away when steaming, sitting at the table and donking another buy-in is one of my biggest leaks and I praise you for having the foresight to save yourself another $200.
Hope you actually wanted analysis of the hand...otherwise I'll be mad that I typed all of that for nothing!
[x] analysis delivers
i agree but disagree. yes you are correct based on % and # of outs, however i think this is were feel comes more into play then just the numbers. why raise when you not only allow them to see a cheap card but also allowing yourself to see a cheap card too which which provide more information to base a play on. if a scare card comes off, easy fold, if any trash card come off easy shove. why force the action at an extremely loose table when the action will come to you naturally? why put yourself in a position that if you do reraise and he calls you really are drawing to nothing? why out yourself in a position that allows very little room for error which a reraise does. it's not this is a tight game and you have to fight people to loosen up and put their stack in play, its a game where you sit back, play a little soft, gamble a little and peel off a card every now and then and shove when you have the best of it since you'll always get a caller.
i completely see your point of it being a weak play but i still think there's equity on later streets but peeling off a card. had it been deeper stack i think that a vey nice reriase would have been in play there since Miller shouldn't have been able to even call with any big pair since he himself would be drawing thin.
maybe the error is not the play itself, but the effective stack in play. even with the read i made, i could have laid it down to pick a better spot since it is such a loose game. maybe if we were sitting all with $400+ this play would have been better. same result, broke off in me, but at least i say i played it right!
I think your point about the mistake being effective stack size in play is correct. Basically, the one thing that really jumped out at me is that you are playing for a non-scare card on the turn in order to push, and that at most will be a $70-50 reraise, which most players won't fold to even with AK-high (I know I've had to make that call when I got caught bluffing at a short stack, and it's hit for me before too). Your read was right, your play was right given the cards, the only thing is that you basically had zero fold equity on the turn, whereas you had some on the flop, and I'd rather take that $220 on the flop knowing that they will fold than gamble my remaining $150 with two players still in action. Your comment about the table being loose would even seem to support my position more, as it means that you don't have to gamble with a low PP with marginal equity, but can likely get your money in with a much greater favorite (and you could do so with a stack of ~350 if you push the flop and take that pot down!). Overall, the play isn't too bad on the flop, I just think that the effective stack size limited its efficacy greatly by narrowing the reactive possibilities of your opponent on the turn.
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