Poker Math

Someone was asking me about poker math over a recent game and I remembered this earlier post by Rick and decided I'd re-post it. Enjoy!


Poker Math

Talk all you want about pot odds and implied odds, I came up with an equation that I find to be more mathematically true than all others:

Large Stack + Complacency = Small Stack

Throw in alcohol and/or lack of sleep, and it equals Rebuy! As anyone who has ever been on a diet knows, it’s much easier to gain weight than lose weight, and it’s no different when it comes to the chip stack. On many occasions I’ve played solid poker for the first few hours and built a nice little stack, only to get a bit bored and a bit tired, and began playing marginal hands out of position.

The typical example of this in a $2-4 game goes something like this: Two limpers in front, look down to see something like 9-8os and throw in the $4, hoping to catch a flop. Someone raises behind to $14, and by the time everyone calls and it gets back to you you’re most likely getting great pot odds to call. Now what do you do if the flop comes 9-6-2 rainbow, do you call a bet or raise with this hand? Do you put your opponent on A-K or J-J? What do you do if the flop is 10-7-3, and the pre-flop raiser puts in a large bet or raise? What if the turn and river comes 6-6, are you willing to risk all your chips on this one hand?

Let’s look at another scenario. Say you have Q-Q, the flop comes 9-6-2 rainbow, and you’re facing a big bet or raise. Are you willing to put all your hard-earned chips at risk on this hand?

For me, the answer to all these questions is simply…it depends. It depends on many things: the situation, your opponent, your read, your stack, your opponent’s stack, etc. The primary goal in poker is to make good decisions, and in these types of situations, it can be difficult to make the correct decision when you’re alert, much less when you’re tired, bored or drunk. The majority of hands pretty much play themselves, but these are the types of hands that can whittle away your stack if you’re not careful.

How many times have you had a stack of, say $800 or so, only to look down 90 minutes later to see $350, and think to yourself “I wasn’t involved in a big hand, where did all my chips go?” Well, if you were bored, tired or drunk, chances are they slowly disappeared one hand at a time while you were trying to catch a flop with 9-8os!

See ya at the tables...
Rick