Serious poker players like to consider poker a game of skill and not chance. So when incidents like the bust in Cary happen we are naturally perturbed by the shortsightedness of non poker players and our often times antiquated laws pertaining to gambling. We accept at face value that poker is a game of skill. We can't just make that statement though without exploring it more thoroughly and actually educating people about poker and how it is similar to and different from other forms of gambling.
I love talking to non poker players about poker but I oft times get the feeling that they don't see much difference in poker and other games of chance in much the same way that many believe that playing online poker is illegal. We can't just say that poker is a game of skill or predominantly one of skill. Where do we draw the line in the amount of skill required? We all know that there is no skill involved in playing slots but what about video poker, blackjack, or even heaven forbid sports betting. Skillful decisions can be made in video poker, blackjack, and sports betting and there are individuals though admittedly a small number who can make a living in one or more of these forms of gambling. Any one here think sports betting will be legalized as a game of skill? I wouldn't hold my breath.
While poker and these other forms of gambling all share an element of skill there are differences. I won't even tackle sports betting but in video poker and blackjack there is almost always a mathematically correct way given the information available of playing a hand to maximize your win rate. With video poker one first has to start by selecting the right game to play based on the pay table. There are video poker games that when played with the optimal strategy are positive expectation games that will return 100% of the money cycled through them. One will not find any of those games such as full pay Deuces Wild or 10/7 Double Bonus though in North Carolina. When the small edge a player can attain is coupled with rewards they can earn for their play such as cash back and comps they can be profitable games and a very smart way to gamble. The same with blackjack. The rules of blackjack vary widely. One can find single deck to eight deck games, games where a blackjack pays 3-2 or 6-5 (the 6-5 single deck games appear attractive but in fact have the highest house advantage and are the worst blackjack games available), etc. A card counter can pick the correct game to play in and by utilizing card counting, basic strategy, and varying his wagers can turn a negative expectation game into a positive one. So where am I going with this? While poker, blackjack, and video poker can all be beaten and all contain an element of skill poker players unlike blackjack and video poker players do not have an obvious mathematically correct way of playing a hand most of the time. Poker players are often faced with incomplete information and have to take into account a number of factors when deciding the best way to play a hand. The more skillful the decisions they make though the more profitable their results should be in the long term.
How one looks at long term versus short term results is a whole other area to look at when considering the amount of chance versus skill involved in poker. Most poker players would agree that in the long term the results of a skilled poker player will reflect their edge in skill over their opponents. What constitutes a long term or short term though? What I am trying to say is there are a lot of factors involved in the chance vs. skill argument. We have to explore them all and be honest with ourselves and others when trying to differentiate poker from other forms of gambling. In order to do this we need to understand and be able to convincingly explain why skill is so important in poker and how skilled players can maximize their wins and reduce their losses by making skillful decisions and thus reducing the element of chance.
In a couple of recent posts at the poker forum twoplustwo.com the poker author and theorist David Sklansky makes several statements which I like concerning the predominance of skill in poker. Here is one of them:
"Only in games of skill can a player guarantee that he will quickly lose. If for some strange reason he wanted to...You can't guarantee that you will lose in slot machines or keno or roulette or craps just by playing badly.(I'm not counting the artificial plays of betting red and black or pass and don't pass at the same time. Nor am I talking about folding every hand in poker. I'm talking about playing very badly.) Only in games of skill, does horrible play mean a quick demise. (Although there are exceptions such as sports betting). Thus while you can't show a jury that expert play quickly results in a win, you can show them that in poker the opposite type of play quickly results in a loss. Which should be sufficient evidence to prove that skill is a major part of the game."
In another post he states:
"The majority of the major decisions during a poker hand, (the decision whether to play at all being normally trivial) are not obvious, a matter of skill, and result in large differences in expected value, with the most skillful decisions having the highest value. I phrased it this way because it is apparently important to show that results rely more than 50% on skill, rather than luck. Whatever that means. I added the "not obvious" part to distinguish it from games like blackjack where the "skillful" plays are indeed obvious way more than half the time. I didn't consider the first round folds in poker because they are usually so routine and involve so little money that it wouldn't be fair to."
I like these statements and agree with them. Hopefully one day so will a judge. We have to keep fighting. Even though we are faced with many negative developments there are positive ones. Antigua continues to try to combat with some success through the World Trade Organization the US government's stance on online gaming. The former New York Senator turned lobbyist Alfonse D'Amato becoming the new Chairman of the Poker Players Alliance will hopefully help advance our interests. It appears that US Congressman Barney Frank, who is now chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, supports legislation to repeal the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act. There are representatives in several state legislatures who support updating their gambling laws in ways that would be more favorable to poker. Hopefully in the near future the positive developments will begin to outweigh the negative ones. All of us can play a part by joining organizations like the PPA, calling or writing our representatives, and educating those we know who are now either uniformed or misinformed about poker.
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