What Was I Thinking?!

Many hands are easy to lay down in Omaha 8. The nuts on the flop, and the nuts on the turn are two examples of hands which you’d usually be better off simply tossing directly into the muck, as 99.6% of the time (hey, I just report the stats, I don’t make ‘em up…) they’ll just cost you a large portion of your stack.

Drawing hands are another story altogether, as (using some of my amazing math abilities), they will get there 99.6% of the time. Some examples of good draws in O8 are open-end straight draws (8 outs), flush draws (9 outs), sets (10 outs) and low draws (up to 21 outs!). Great draws would include two-pair (4 outs), or a gutshot straight draw (4 outs). The only real sure-fire lock draw is the gutshot straight flush draw (1 out, which I’ve had hit twice against me in the past six months or so…).

This is why the laydown I made last night was so horrible. Not only did I have a lock one-outer, but there was a bet and a raise in front of me, meaning that as the “sucker in the middle” I probably would’ve had to risk a good portion of my stack to try and suck out. With all that going against me, I don’t know how I folded – I was golden! I haven’t experienced this much of a sure thing since Dave’s wife after half a Zima™…

$5/10 NLO8. I’m on the button, and look down at As-5h-6h-10s. Five of us limp and see a flop of 2h-3h-Kc. Not a bad flop for my hand – I’ve got some possibilities, but nothing’s there yet. Tom is UTG, and leads out with a $40 bet. I’m not sure why, but for some reason I read him as strong. Still, it’s an easy call once it gets to me. Bill is next to act, however, and min-raises to $80. Crap. I want to see a cheap turn card, and Bill just eliminated this possibility. If I were last to act, the implied odds would still make it an easy call, since Bill would most-assuredly bet the turn and river even after getting drawn out on. It folds to me, and I mull it over for a few seconds. Bill obviously has a set, and with Tom (and his fairly big stack) left to act behind me, it’s not hard to envision him with a big hand like a small wrap and the nut flush draw. Nope, I can’t do it – I toss my cards into the muck.

Tom doesn’t take much time to push all-in, and Bill makes the call. Bill turns up his hand to show 2-2 for bottom set, and not much else. Tom, on the other hand, has a monster, A-4-K-K. He has no flush draw, but has top set and nut low draw. About two seconds after I begin patting myself on the back for making a good read on Tom and laying down my hand, the dealer flips over the turn card, the 4h. Aaack!! I would’ve made the wheel and a straight flush, and scooped up both their stacks!

It’s hands like this that make me wish I was a worse player. :-) I was on mini-tilt for the next ten minutes, but luckily didn’t give any chips away. I ended up the night almost $2k to the good, but oh, what could have been! One thing’s for certain – if I ever find myself in that situation again…yep, I’ll probably still fold…

See ya at the tables…
Rick