It's Been Raised... what now?

This was posted originally back in August and there have been several guys over the past few weeks who have told me they couldn't find it. So I thought a re-post might be in order....

This is where most people really blow it. How do you make the decision on making a call for half your chips ..... or all of your chips? Too many times this decision is based solely on emotion and not on math. I certainly have done it! And I have hit the one outer... haven't I Jeff? Without getting into pot odds and implied odds, probably the easiest to use and the best method of calculating the likelihood of getting your cards is the 2/4 Rule. The 2/4 rule gives you an answer that is within a percent or 2 of the actual number without having to be a math genius.

Here's how it works. First, you need to count your outs. Outs in a hold'em hand are the cards necessary that CAN come to complete your hand. For instance, if you have 4 to the flush on the flop, there are 9 cards left in the deck that can complete your flush (13 of each suit in the deck minus the 4 to the flush that are in your hand and on the board). Next you multiply your outs by either 2 or 4 depending on whether you plan on seeing 1 or 2 cards (either the turn or the river -or- the turn and the river). That number is percentage chance that your draw will hit. So for the flush draw to hit on either the turn or river, I multiply my 9 outs by 4 equalling 36. That means there is a 36% chance of my flush getting there if I plan on staying in and seeing both the turn and the river. If I were to only see the turn OR the river card, I would only multiply my outs by 2 -- which gives me an 18% chance of making my hand. There are a lot of other things that can and should be considered, but if you're looking for a quick and dirty way to help determine how likely it is for your card to come, this is a great method to use.

Here's another example... just for Dave... let's say that you have the Jc, 10c and flop a gut shot straight flush draw...... LOL. The 9c, 7c hit the board with a 2d. That means there is ONE card in the deck to complete your straight flush, but the same non-club 8 will give you a straight, the nut straight. Let's also assume that you believe that any club will make your hand (no other player has a higher flush draw.... {I know, only Dave would be doing all this assuming}), that means that there are 4 eights that will make your hand and 8 other clubs that would make your hand. It may also be safe to assume that any 10 or Jack might give you the best pair although depending on pre-flop bets/raises, the 10 or Jack may complete someone else's open ended straight draw. So, confused? Good! At any rate, there are 4 eights and 8 other clubs which means that you have 12 outs. So if you plan on seeing both the turn and the river, you've got a 48% chance of making your hand.Now let's muddy the water... let's say that a 3c hits the turn. Now you have a Jack high flush with a straight flush draw. OK. Dave will bet $50 and let's say Rick re-raises all-in for $800 more. So, now you know that your flush is no good without the 8c.... or at least most know that it is no good..... But good old Dave cannot get away from it. He has one out with one card to come. The math should be pretty easy to do. 1 out X 2 = 2% chance that his card will hit. He, of course, calls and loses all his chips.

Now let's run the same scenario with Dave, but with Charles holding the nut flush. Everything is the same EXCEPT that Dave gets the 8c on the river and takes all Charles' chips.

Back to the felt!